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College of Arts & Sciences
Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute

Decision-making and Long-Lead Climate Forecasts

The focus of this collaborative project with Penn State was to understanding how water managers anticipate and adjust to climatic variability and how long-lead climate forecasts can help reduce their planning uncertainty and vulnerability. (B. Yarnal and K. Dow PIs, G. Carbone, S. Cutter, R. Bord, and R. O’Connor, co-investigators, Penn State University/NOAA)


Dow, K., R.E. O’Connor, B. Yarnal, G. J. Carbone, and C. L. Jocoy, 2006. "Why worry? Community water system managers’ perceptions of climate vulnerability,"Global Environmental Change.

Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R. E. O’Connor, K. Dow, and C. L. Jocoy, 2006. "The Potential Use of Climate Forecasts by Community Water System Managers," Land Use and Water Resources Research Vol. 6. Available online at

O’Connor, R. E., B. Yarnal, K. Dow, C. L. Jacoy, and G. J. Carbone, 2005. “Feeling At-Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts.” Risk Analysis 25(5): 1265-1275.

Carbone, G. J. and K. Dow, 2005. “Water Resource Management and Drought Forecasts in South Carolina”. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 41 (1): 145-155.